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Mod-Ex Question 1

MEQ1: Permafrost - Topography - Hydrology

How do permafrost, topographic, and hydrological properties co-evolve and affect carbon and energy fluxes?

In Phase 4, we are testing the hypothesis that co-evolution of permafrost thermal conditions, microtopography, and surface/subsurface hydrology in a warming climate will lead to drier conditions on average but greater large-scale spatial variability in moisture content and partitioning of fluxes between CO2 and CH4. Surface drying will be widespread because of increased evapotranspiration and deeper hydrologic flow paths in general and will be accelerated in polygonal ground by uneven subsidence, which reduces storage in microtopographic depressions. Reduced depression storage will increase the role of macrotopography, leading to greater large-scale spatial variability in moisture content and CO2 and CH4 fluxes.

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2025

  • Wang, Chen, et al. “Advancing the Understanding of Snow Accumulation, Melting, and Associated Thermal Insulation Using Spatially Dense Snow Depth and Temperature Time Series”. Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 52, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL114189.
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  • Kim, Kwansoo, et al. “Determination of Ground Subsidence Around Snow Fences in the Arctic Region”. Lithosphere, vol. 2025, 2025, https://doi.org/10.2113/2025/lithosphere_2024_215.
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  • Shirley, Ian A, et al. “Disentangling the Impacts of Microtopography and Shrub Distribution on Snow Depth in a Subarctic Watershed: Toward a Predictive Understanding of Snow Spatial Variability”. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences , vol. 130, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JG008604.
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2024

  • Fiolleau, Sylvain, et al. “Insights on Seasonal Solifluction Processes in Warm Permafrost Arctic Landscape Using a Dense Monitoring Approach across Adjacent Hillslopes”. Environmental Research Letters, vol. 19, 2024, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad28dc.
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  • Wang, Chen, et al. “Local-Scale Heterogeneity of Soil Thermal Dynamics and Controlling Factors in a Discontinuous Permafrost Region”. Environmental Research Letters, vol. 19, 2024, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad27bb .
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  • Abolt, Charles J., et al. “Topography Controls Variability in Circumpolar Permafrost Thaw Pond Expansion”. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface , vol. 129, 2024, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF007675.
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2023

  • Painter, Scott L., et al. “Drying of Tundra Landscapes Will Limit Subsidence-Induced Acceleration of Permafrost Thaw”. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 120, no. 8, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2212171120.
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  • Uhlemann, Sebastian, et al. “Estimating Permafrost Distribution Using Co-Located Temperature and Electrical Resistivity Measurements”. Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 50, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103987.
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  • Thaler, Evan A., et al. “High-Resolution Maps of Near-Surface Permafrost for Three Watersheds on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska Derived From Machine Learning”. Earth and Space Science, vol. 10, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EA003015.
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  • Wielandt, Stijn, et al. “TDD LoRa and Delta Encoding in Low-Power Networks of Environmental Sensor Arrays for Temperature and Deformation Monitoring”. Journal of Signal Processing Systems, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11265-023-01834-2.
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2022

  • Shirley, Ian A., et al. “Near‐Surface Hydrology and Soil Properties Drive Heterogeneity in Permafrost Distribution, Vegetation Dynamics, and Carbon Cycling in a Sub‐Arctic Watershed”. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, vol. 127, no. 9, 2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jg006864.
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  • Brunetti, Carlotta, et al. “Probabilistic Estimation of Depth-Resolved Profiles of Soil Thermal Diffusivity from Temperature Time Series”. Earth Surface Dynamics, vol. 10, no. 4, 2022, pp. 687-04, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-687-2022.
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2021

  • Debolskiy, Matvey V., et al. “Water Balance Response of Permafrost-Affected Watersheds to Changes in Air Temperatures”. Environmental Research Letters, vol. 16, no. 8, 2021, p. 084054, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac12f3.
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2020

  • Abolt, Charles J., et al. “Feedbacks Between Surface Deformation and Permafrost Degradation in Ice Wedge Polygons, Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska”. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, vol. 125, no. 3, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jf005349.
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2017

  • Liljedahl, Anna K., et al. “Tundra Water Budget and Implications of Precipitation Underestimation”. Water Resources Research, vol. 53, no. 8, 2017, pp. 6472-86, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016wr020001.
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